AMZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMZN - Amazon.Com Inc
$271.58
36.08 (15.32%)
▲
5d:
+17.0%
30d:
+12.36%
90d:
+2.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMZN is 8.3% above its trading range ($250.81). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMZN is 8.3% above its trading range ($250.81). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$390.46
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$242.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMZN is currently trading at $271.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $232.01 to $250.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.0) is in line with its historical norms (25.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $273.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.07 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $273.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.07 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$232.01 -
$250.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMZN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+15.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($313.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Extended 8.3% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$232.01 -
$250.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$223.68
Resistance Level
$273.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.04
Wall Street Target
$313.07
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
74.8%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 25.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$275.65
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$279.79
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$283.99
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$270.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 14.6%)
$409.26
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.6%)
$313.70
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 14.6%)
$266.64
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.69
Bull Case
$299.35
(+10%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$272.13
(+0%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$160.14
(-41%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Jassy
SELL
31000 shares
2026-04-17
Douglas J Herrington
SELL
20500 shares
2026-04-14
Douglas J Herrington
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-01
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