AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$9.12
0.34 (3.87%)
▲
5d:
+1.67%
30d:
+1.11%
90d:
+1.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AOMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.13
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.39
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $9.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.86 to $9.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.86 -
$9.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -60.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.86 -
$9.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.61
Resistance Level
$9.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.54
Wall Street Target
$10.75
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
45.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.22
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.32
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$9.42
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.2%)
$49.03
(+438%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 19.2%)
$15.46
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 19.2%)
$13.14
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$19.32
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$17.56
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$5.97
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 7:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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