APG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APG - APi Group Corporation
$41.10
-0.26 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-0.63%
90d:
-7.45%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.0% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.0% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.73
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APG is currently trading at $41.10, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.31 to $42.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (26.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.70 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.70 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$41.31 -
$42.59
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($52.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.31 -
$42.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.18
Resistance Level
$43.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.29
Wall Street Target
$52.70
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.8%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 26.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.46
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$35.77
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$33.27
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$41.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 70.8%)
$142.81
(+245%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 70.8%)
$139.59
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 70.8%)
$118.65
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 26.5
Stabilization Target:
$51.48
(+24.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin E Franklin
SELL
3000000 shares
2026-03-19
Ian G H Ashken
SELL
72546 shares
2026-03-04
James E Lillie
SELL
83629 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced APG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APG price and gamma walls.
