ARCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$19.17
0.41 (2.19%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
+2.35%
90d:
-0.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
Get Alerted When ARCC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.09
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $19.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.44 to $19.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.45, while resistance sits at $19.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.45, while resistance sits at $19.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.44 -
$19.01
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.44 -
$19.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.45
Resistance Level
$19.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.94
Wall Street Target
$20.69
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-54.1%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.19
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$19.21
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$19.23
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 91.0%)
$41.09
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 91.0%)
$19.70
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 91.0%)
$16.74
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$29.71
(+55%)
Analyst growth 44.0%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$27.01
(+41%)
Market implied 44.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$12.76
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 3:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Scott C Lem
BUY
5186 shares
2026-02-06
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc. |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$126 | 60 HOLD |
|
BLK
BlackRock Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$1314 | 51 HOLD |
|
BX
Blackstone Group Inc |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$142 | 58 HOLD |
|
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$12 | 55 HOLD |
|
CRBG
Corebridge Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$38 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced ARCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.
