ARCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$19.92
0.14 (0.71%)
▲
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
+7.04%
90d:
+6.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARCC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARCC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.75
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $19.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.83 to $19.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.83 -
$19.81
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.83 -
$19.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.57
Resistance Level
$20.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.31
Wall Street Target
$20.62
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-54.1%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.18
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.44
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$20.71
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 1.2%)
$40.22
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 1.2%)
$20.66
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 1.2%)
$17.56
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$31.38
(+58%)
Analyst growth 44.2%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$28.53
(+43%)
Market implied 44.2%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$13.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ARCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.
