What is the fair value of ARES stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARES to be between $123.40 and $141.77. The current price is $141.25.

What is the analyst price target for ARES?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARES is $146.89. This implies a potential upside of 4.0% from current levels.

ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$141.25

1.02 (0.73%) ▲

5d: -1.92%

30d: +16.47%

90d: +13.92%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 31, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $141.34 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 5.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ARES is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 22.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$246.56

Based on 13.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$153.09

7.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $141.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.40 to $141.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $134.42, while resistance sits at $149.87.

Market Sentiment: ARES scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $123.40 - $141.77

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 39.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.89)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $123.40 - $141.77

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $134.42

Resistance Level $149.87

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.64

Wall Street Target $146.89 (+4.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.5%

Profit Margin 10.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.2% premium

PE vs Historical 19.6 vs 18.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $144.36 (+2%)

2-Year Target $147.53 (+4%)

3-Year Target $150.78 (+7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→18) PE COMPRESSION $141.26 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.9%) $268.10 (+90%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 22.9%) $262.35 (+86%)

Bear: (PE: 16.7, Growth: 22.9%) $223.00 (+58%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 24.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.88

Bull Case $170.56 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.2

Base Case $141.25 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.0

Bear Case $108.06 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

John Boozman BUY 2026-03-13

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.

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