ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock
$128.09
3.97 (3.20%)
▲
5d:
+1.25%
30d:
+12.73%
90d:
+9.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.19
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.24
15.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $128.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.94 to $126.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 770.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.39 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.39 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.94 -
$126.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($141.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.94 -
$126.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.43
Resistance Level
$131.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.74
Wall Street Target
$141.39
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
770.5%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.81
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$125.54
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$124.29
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$128.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 22.7%)
$276.61
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 22.7%)
$236.67
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 22.7%)
$201.17
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.12
Bull Case
$154.67
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$128.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$97.99
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$132.16
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Judy D Olian
BUY
480 shares
2026-02-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.
