ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$16.87
-0.18 (-1.06%)
▼
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
+0.24%
90d:
-4.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ARR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.03
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $16.87, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.81 to $17.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.6) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.81 -
$17.24
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.81 -
$17.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.82
Resistance Level
$17.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.60
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
80.8%
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.87
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.87
(0%)
3-Year Target
$16.87
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.86
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$71.66
(+325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 3.0%)
$18.43
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$15.67
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$22.68
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$20.62
(+22%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$11.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ARR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARR price and gamma walls.
