BGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGS - B&G Foods, Inc.
$3.93
0.06 (1.55%)
▲
5d:
-3.68%
30d:
+1.81%
90d:
-28.42%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.98
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGS is currently trading at $3.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.88 to $4.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.88 -
$4.05
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($5.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.88 -
$4.05
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.82
Resistance Level
$4.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.02
Wall Street Target
$5.20
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.9%
Profit Margin
-4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.58
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.26
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$2.97
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$3.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$17.93
(+356%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 8.0%)
$4.96
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 8.0%)
$4.21
(+7%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.22
(+32.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew D Vogel
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
David L Wenner
SELL
19500 shares
2026-03-13
Martin C Schoch
SELL
11321 shares
2026-03-12
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