BIRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$44.63
-0.85 (-1.87%)
▼
5d:
-3.31%
30d:
+1.55%
90d:
+17.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BIRK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BIRK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.18
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.06
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $44.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.26 to $46.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.67, while resistance sits at $46.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.61 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.67, while resistance sits at $46.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.61 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.26 -
$46.78
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($51.61)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 7.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.26 -
$46.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.67
Resistance Level
$46.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.46
Wall Street Target
$51.61
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$47.07
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$48.34
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.52
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$94.16
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.4%)
$79.80
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 21.4%)
$67.83
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.19
Bull Case
$55.23
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$50.21
(+13%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$30.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BIRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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