BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$407.41
-6.06 (-1.47%)
▼
5d:
-1.12%
30d:
-0.92%
90d:
+17.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Get Alerted When BLD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$666.20
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$413.66
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $407.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $402.52 to $416.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.5) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $390.23, while resistance sits at $427.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $390.23, while resistance sits at $427.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$402.52 -
$416.75
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($471.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$402.52 -
$416.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$390.23
Resistance Level
$427.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$471.33
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$401.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$395.28
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$389.35
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$408.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$685.96
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 14.7%)
$615.48
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 14.7%)
$523.16
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.79
Bull Case
$544.96
(+32%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$495.42
(+20%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$287.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$427.38
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Engineering & Construction Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Engineering & Construction by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
PWR
Quanta Services Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$761 | 64 BUY |
|
MTZ
MasTec Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$473 | 59 HOLD |
|
ACM
Aecom Technology Corpora… |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$105 | 60 HOLD |
|
J
Jacobs Solutions Inc. |
BUY
17 analysts |
$158 | 51 HOLD |
|
STN
Stantec Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$94 | 53 HOLD |
