BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$75.04
-0.65 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-8.85%
30d:
+0.56%
90d:
-12.03%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.67
26.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $75.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.04 to $84.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$74.04 -
$84.59
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLDR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($97.38)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.04 -
$84.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.97
Resistance Level
$90.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.87
Wall Street Target
$97.38
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.04
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$70.48
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$68.02
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$75.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 37.2%)
$330.41
(+337%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 37.2%)
$195.28
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 37.2%)
$165.99
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$163.99
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$149.08
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$50.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$84.08
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Paul S Levy
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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