BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$77.33
-3.26 (-4.05%)
▼
5d:
-0.57%
30d:
+8.56%
90d:
-4.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.67
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $77.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.98 to $78.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.50, while resistance sits at $82.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+25.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.50, while resistance sits at $82.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+25.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$71.98 -
$78.07
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($97.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.98 -
$78.07
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.50
Resistance Level
$82.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.15
Wall Street Target
$97.38
(+25.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.09
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$72.91
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$70.80
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$76.98
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 37.2%)
$330.41
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 37.2%)
$199.51
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 37.2%)
$169.59
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.62
Bull Case
$177.30
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$161.18
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$54.80
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$84.08
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
Paul S Levy
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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