BOOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOOT - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$148.99
-5.38 (-3.49%)
▼
5d:
-0.66%
30d:
-8.13%
90d:
-13.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BOOT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BOOT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$290.26
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$180.23
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOOT is currently trading at $148.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.46 to $168.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $143.87, while resistance sits at $160.51. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.71 (+48.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $143.87, while resistance sits at $160.51. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.71 (+48.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$150.46 -
$168.71
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 48.1% below Wall St target ($220.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.46 -
$168.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$143.87
Resistance Level
$160.51
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.50
Wall Street Target
$220.71
(+48.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 21.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.75
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$131.09
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$122.96
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$148.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.1%)
$275.87
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 16.1%)
$232.88
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$197.94
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.52
Bull Case
$192.25
(+29%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$174.78
(+17%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$104.97
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$180.50
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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