BURL
BURLINGTON STORES, INC.
RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES
BURLINGTON STORES (BURL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$256.29
+2.34 (+0.92%)
â˛
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-2.67%
90d:
-27.87%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
11d
Protect BURL Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (60%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$242.67 â $268.88
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
22.9x
CHEAP
vs 27.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$358.71
+40.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
5th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$234.66 / $263.03
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BURL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $257.62 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$432.64
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$268.64
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BURL is currently trading at $256.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $242.67 to $268.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BURL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $263.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BURL scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $358.71 (+40.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BURL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $263.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BURL scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $358.71 (+40.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$242.67 -
$268.88
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$242.67 -
$268.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$19.25
(7.5%)
Support Level
$234.66
Resistance Level
$263.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding BURL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.0% below Wall St target ($358.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.93
Wall Street Target
$358.71
(+40.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.9%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 27.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$241.17
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$226.94
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$213.55
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â28)
$256.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$384.04
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$332.61
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$282.72
(+10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.13
Bull Case
$280.51
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.4%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$255.01
(-1%)
Market implied 0.4%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$172.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$307.35
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BURL)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 21, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Burlington Stores (BURL) is enhancing its competitive position by optimizing its store portfolio through new openings, relocations, and downsizing projects, leading to improved sales productivity and cost savings.
Key Retail Themes:
store optimization
improved sales productivity
cost savings
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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