Boot Barn (BOOT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOOT - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$118.23
2.14 (1.84%)
▲
5d:
-1.98%
30d:
-5.03%
90d:
-21.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BOOT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BOOT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$273.83
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$170.02
30.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOOT is currently trading at $118.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.99 to $130.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $110.53, while resistance sits at $123.91.
Market Sentiment: BOOT scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.87 (+81.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $110.53, while resistance sits at $123.91.
Market Sentiment: BOOT scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.87 (+81.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$116.99 -
$130.13
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BOOT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 81.6% below Wall St target ($210.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.99 -
$130.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.53
Resistance Level
$123.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.64
Wall Street Target
$210.87
(+81.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.6%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 20.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.48
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$94.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$84.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→20)
$124.14
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$264.29
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$181.45
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$154.23
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.90
Bull Case
$136.75
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$124.32
(+7%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$78.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$170.28
(+46.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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