BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$168.70
3.11 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
-11.79%
90d:
-22.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BWXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$183.21
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $168.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $169.44 to $191.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.5) compared to its historical average (40.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $157.10, while resistance sits at $181.54.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.16 (+41.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $157.10, while resistance sits at $181.54.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.16 (+41.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$169.44 -
$191.69
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
45th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 45th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($238.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$169.44 -
$191.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.58
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$157.10
Resistance Level
$181.54
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.48
Wall Street Target
$238.16
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 40.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.22
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$144.66
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$133.95
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→41)
$168.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: 10.3%)
$226.29
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.3%)
$144.43
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.3%)
$122.77
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.74
Bull Case
$252.97
(+50%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 48.7
Base Case
$229.97
(+36%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$112.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.5 to 40.9
Stabilization Target:
$212.44
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-19
Kevin James Gorman
SELL
1344 shares
2026-03-02
Gerhard F Burbach
SELL
1983 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced BWXT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BWXT price and gamma walls.
