BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$156.78
0.34 (0.22%)
â˛
5d:
-9.49%
30d:
-11.26%
90d:
-22.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 12, 2026 at $172.56 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BWXT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BWXT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.89
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $156.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.96 to $178.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.8) compared to its historical average (40.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BWXT scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.45 (+49.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BWXT scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.45 (+49.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$166.96 -
$178.47
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.5% below Wall St target ($234.45)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$166.96 -
$178.47
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$154.59
Resistance Level
$174.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.84
Wall Street Target
$234.45
(+49.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.8 vs 40.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.04
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$128.69
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$116.59
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30â40)
$156.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$213.73
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$143.75
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$122.19
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$243.05
(+55%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 46.3
Base Case
$220.95
(+41%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 42.1
Bear Case
$106.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.8 to 40.1
Stabilization Target:
$210.69
(+34.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-19
Kevin James Gorman
SELL
1344 shares
2026-03-02
Gerhard F Burbach
SELL
1983 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced BWXT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BWXT price and gamma walls.
