CAE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAE - CAE INC
$24.91
-0.71 (-2.77%)
▼
5d:
-6.6%
30d:
-1.85%
90d:
-9.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CAE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.63
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAE is currently trading at $24.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.96 to $25.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.15 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.15 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.96 -
$25.80
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($32.15)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.96 -
$25.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.82
Resistance Level
$26.86
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.08
Wall Street Target
$32.15
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.2%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.22
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$23.88
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$24.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.9%)
$30.34
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$27.97
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$23.77
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$51.42
(+106%)
Analyst growth 82.5%, PE expands to 41.4
Base Case
$46.75
(+88%)
Market implied 82.5%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$17.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$26.06
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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