CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$66.31
1.03 (1.58%)
▲
5d:
-7.43%
30d:
-2.54%
90d:
-6.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.97
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.74
12.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $66.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.43 to $72.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMC scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.55 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMC scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.55 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.43 -
$72.52
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($81.55)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.43 -
$72.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.13
Resistance Level
$75.09
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.98
Wall Street Target
$81.55
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.33
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$60.48
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$57.75
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$66.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$231.04
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 16.0%)
$103.42
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 16.0%)
$87.91
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.07
Bull Case
$104.53
(+58%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$95.03
(+43%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$44.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$76.02
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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