CVLG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$42.63
0.36 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
-7.97%
30d:
+19.51%
90d:
+68.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLG trades at premium valuation expecting 9.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CVLG trades at premium valuation expecting 9.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $42.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.48 to $44.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $47.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $47.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$36.48 -
$44.41
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.9% above Wall St target ($35.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.9% growth with 14.0% revenue growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.48 -
$44.41
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.56
Resistance Level
$47.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.24
Wall Street Target
$35.00
(-17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.2%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 12.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.85
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$51.49
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$56.59
(+33%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.51
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 56.7%)
$192.96
(+353%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 56.7%)
$143.88
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 56.7%)
$108.08
(+154%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 26.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.62
Bull Case
$51.48
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$42.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$32.61
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Ray Parker
SELL
30400 shares
2026-02-20
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SELL
55000 shares
2026-02-19
David Ray Parker
SELL
65000 shares
2026-02-18
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