CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$117.80
1.38 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
-17.22%
30d:
-19.87%
90d:
+19.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVLT is down 17.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVLT is down 17.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.38
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $117.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.84 to $151.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (23.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $113.53, while resistance sits at $150.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.15 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $113.53, while resistance sits at $150.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.15 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$132.84 -
$151.68
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($161.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with 11.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -17.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.84 -
$151.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.53
Resistance Level
$150.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.40
Wall Street Target
$161.15
(+36.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 23.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.10
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$120.41
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$121.73
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 15.4%)
$181.06
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.4%)
$153.81
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 15.4%)
$130.74
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 22.73 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.18
Bull Case
$142.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$117.80
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$90.12
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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