Is CVX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CVX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CVX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CVX to be between $186.10 and $200.25. The current price is $205.27.

What is the analyst price target for CVX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CVX is $217.88. This implies a potential upside of 6.1% from current levels.

CVX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CVX - Chevron Corporation

PETROLEUM REFINING

$205.27

-0.50 (-0.24%) ▼

5d: +2.64%

30d: +5.58%

90d: +7.47%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CVX Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 31, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $186.56 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -16.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$166.53

Based on -6.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$103.40

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CVX is currently trading at $205.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.10 to $200.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 321.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CVX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: CVX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $186.10 - $200.25

Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($217.88)
WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $186.10 - $200.25

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $188.88

Resistance Level $208.98

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.52

Wall Street Target $217.88 (+6.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 321.9%

Profit Margin 9.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.5 vs 17.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $196.03 (-5%)

2-Year Target $187.21 (-9%)

3-Year Target $178.79 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→18) $205.06 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -16.8%) $193.52 (+-6%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: -16.8%) $149.64 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 13.2, Growth: -16.8%) $127.20 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 19.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.39

Bull Case $288.14 (+40%)

Analyst growth 27.3%, PE expands to 21.8

Base Case $261.94 (+28%)

Market implied 27.3%, PE stable at 19.8

Bear Case $139.92 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 17.8

Stabilization Target: $235.43 (+14.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.7%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

R. Hewitt Pate SELL 40200 shares 2026-03-30

David Taylor SELL 2026-03-12

David Taylor SELL 2026-03-11

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