CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$29.90
0.10 (0.34%)
▲
5d:
-4.63%
30d:
-3.58%
90d:
+46.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CXW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CXW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $29.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.01 to $31.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.01 -
$31.60
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($36.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.01 -
$31.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.46
Resistance Level
$32.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.00
Wall Street Target
$36.40
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 11.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.99
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$34.23
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$36.63
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 30.4%)
$98.10
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 30.4%)
$66.27
(+122%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 30.4%)
$53.95
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$56.90
(+90%)
Analyst growth 73.6%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$51.73
(+73%)
Market implied 73.6%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$20.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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