CoreCivic (CXW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$32.49
0.24 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-5.44%
30d:
-0.7%
90d:
+4.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CXW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CXW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.37
8.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $32.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.45 to $34.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.55, while resistance sits at $36.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.55, while resistance sits at $36.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$32.45 -
$34.79
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($41.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.45 -
$34.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.55
Resistance Level
$36.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$41.80
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.66
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$34.87
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$36.13
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 43.7%)
$146.30
(+350%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 43.7%)
$96.38
(+197%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 43.7%)
$81.92
(+152%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$69.16
(+113%)
Analyst growth 95.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$62.87
(+94%)
Market implied 95.0%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$21.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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