CoreCivic (CXW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$28.66
-0.86 (-2.91%)
▼
5d:
-8.23%
30d:
-11.21%
90d:
-8.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.66
19.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $28.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.10 to $34.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CXW scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+41.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CXW scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+41.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.10 -
$34.28
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.6% below Wall St target ($41.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.10 -
$34.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.71
Resistance Level
$34.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.21
Wall Street Target
$41.80
(+41.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.55
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$29.58
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$29.61
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.58
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.7%)
$142.42
(+383%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 43.7%)
$87.57
(+197%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 43.7%)
$74.43
(+152%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$64.55
(+119%)
Analyst growth 93.4%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$58.68
(+99%)
Market implied 93.4%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$20.63
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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