CoreCivic (CXW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$34.93
0.52 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+3.77%
30d:
+3.96%
90d:
+30.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $34.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.91 to $34.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.7% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$31.91 -
$34.36
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.80)
- BEARISH: Market expects 8.7% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.91 -
$34.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.73
Resistance Level
$35.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.34
Wall Street Target
$41.80
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.7% premium
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 11.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.97
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$41.27
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$44.86
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 35.0%)
$112.93
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 35.0%)
$85.90
(+146%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 35.0%)
$66.63
(+91%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$68.39
(+96%)
Analyst growth 80.7%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$62.18
(+78%)
Market implied 80.7%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$23.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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