CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$34.01
0.50 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
+3.63%
30d:
+7.46%
90d:
+61.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CXW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $34.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.52 to $32.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.9) compared to its historical average (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.80 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.52 -
$32.96
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($41.80)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.52 -
$32.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.01
Resistance Level
$34.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.94
Wall Street Target
$41.80
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 11.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.90
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$40.04
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$43.44
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 35.0%)
$112.37
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 35.0%)
$83.64
(+146%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 35.0%)
$65.51
(+93%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$63.58
(+87%)
Analyst growth 72.5%, PE expands to 27.9
Base Case
$57.80
(+70%)
Market implied 72.5%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$22.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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