CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$29.90
0.25 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+7.65%
30d:
+41.55%
90d:
+47.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CXW is 11.9% above its trading range ($26.71). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CXW is 11.9% above its trading range ($26.71). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.78
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $29.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.71 to $26.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.9) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.71 -
$26.71
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.80)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.71 -
$26.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.77
Resistance Level
$25.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.90
Wall Street Target
$29.80
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 10.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.06
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$36.86
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$41.10
(+39%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.52
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.2%)
$83.00
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$56.78
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 24.2%)
$40.78
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$51.43
(+74%)
Analyst growth 61.8%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$46.76
(+58%)
Market implied 61.8%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$19.65
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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