CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$47.16
-1.16 (-2.40%)
▼
5d:
+4.64%
30d:
+1.88%
90d:
+14.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CYD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CYD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.44
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.36
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $47.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.66 to $47.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.37, while resistance sits at $49.04.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.43 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.37, while resistance sits at $49.04.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.43 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.66 -
$47.06
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($67.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.66 -
$47.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.37
Resistance Level
$49.04
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.71
Wall Street Target
$67.43
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.28
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$41.58
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$39.05
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$48.00
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.5%)
$976.41
(+1970%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 19.5%)
$80.46
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 19.5%)
$68.39
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$106.30
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$96.64
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$32.86
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$57.98
(+22.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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