CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$49.25
0.40 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
-4.98%
30d:
-11.52%
90d:
+20.71%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CYD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 109% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CYD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 109% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.99
27.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $49.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.72 to $57.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.96 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.96 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.72 -
$57.56
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($63.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.72 -
$57.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.39
Resistance Level
$60.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.84
Wall Street Target
$63.96
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.89
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$44.64
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$42.49
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$48.51
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.3%)
$1146.78
(+2229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 25.3%)
$96.85
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 25.3%)
$82.32
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12
Bull Case
$107.14
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$97.40
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$33.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$56.23
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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