EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$15.88
0.30 (1.93%)
▲
5d:
+9.74%
30d:
-2.04%
90d:
+12.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.67
Based on -5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $15.88, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.66 to $16.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.38, while resistance sits at $16.45.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.35. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.38, while resistance sits at $16.45.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.35. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.66 -
$16.06
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.9% above Wall St target ($13.35)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with -8.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.66 -
$16.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.38
Resistance Level
$16.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.16
Wall Street Target
$13.35
(-15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.99
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.10
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$16.22
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.80
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -14.5%)
$24.81
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -14.5%)
$11.58
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -14.5%)
$9.84
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$19.13
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.6%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$17.39
(+10%)
Market implied 11.6%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$10.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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