EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$17.53
-0.12 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+7.35%
90d:
+26.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.77
Based on -12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $17.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.06 to $17.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.5) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.60, while resistance sits at $18.19.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.65. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.60, while resistance sits at $18.19.
Market Sentiment: EC scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.65. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.06 -
$17.32
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 22.1% above Wall St target ($13.65)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.06 -
$17.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.60
Resistance Level
$18.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.46
Wall Street Target
$13.65
(-22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
234.5%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.28
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$19.07
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$19.89
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -28.2%)
$22.39
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: -28.2%)
$12.78
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -28.2%)
$10.86
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
Bull Case
$19.42
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.0%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$17.65
(+1%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$12.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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