EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$15.68
-0.57 (-3.51%)
▼
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
+13.13%
90d:
+9.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.73
Based on -9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $15.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.25 to $16.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.38, while resistance sits at $16.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.16. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.38, while resistance sits at $16.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $13.16. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.25 -
$16.21
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BEARISH: Trading 19.0% above Wall St target ($13.16)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -8.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.25 -
$16.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.38
Resistance Level
$16.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.16
Wall Street Target
$13.16
(-19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.41
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$16.49
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -22.0%)
$25.40
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -22.0%)
$11.85
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -22.0%)
$10.07
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$20.69
(+27%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$18.81
(+16%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$11.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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