ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$81.68
-1.47 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
+1.31%
30d:
+12.15%
90d:
+26.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ETSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ETSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.79
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $81.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.22 to $83.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.87, while resistance sits at $87.26.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.87, while resistance sits at $87.26.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$76.22 -
$83.78
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($76.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.22 -
$83.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.87
Resistance Level
$87.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.11
Wall Street Target
$76.33
(-6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.80
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$85.98
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$88.22
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.7%)
$127.07
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.7%)
$123.24
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 14.7%)
$104.75
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$148.23
(+82%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$134.76
(+65%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$58.19
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Silverman
SELL
70000 shares
2026-04-21
Josh Silverman
SELL
30369 shares
2026-04-20
Josh Silverman
SELL
24296 shares
2026-04-16
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