FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$127.11
1.95 (1.56%)
▲
5d:
+0.61%
30d:
+4.7%
90d:
+23.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.74
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $127.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.36 to $126.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.0) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$120.36 -
$126.01
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.59)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.36 -
$126.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.34
Resistance Level
$124.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.99
Wall Street Target
$124.59
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.8%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.78
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$132.50
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$135.29
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: -11.1%)
$92.66
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -11.1%)
$84.12
(-34%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -11.1%)
$71.51
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.57
Bull Case
$159.62
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$145.11
(+14%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$85.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52311 shares
2026-03-27
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-25
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-23
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