FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$53.37
2.45 (4.81%)
▲
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
+4.04%
90d:
-17.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FRPT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.6% annual earnings decline despite 79% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FRPT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.6% annual earnings decline despite 79% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.04
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $53.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.97 to $53.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.2) compared to its historical average (37.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.94 (+60.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.94 (+60.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$48.97 -
$53.58
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.9% below Wall St target ($81.94)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.97 -
$53.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.50
Resistance Level
$53.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.24
Wall Street Target
$81.94
(+60.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.2 vs 37.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.54
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$42.54
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$38.88
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→37)
$50.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.2, Growth: 7.1%)
$62.64
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$48.31
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 7.1%)
$41.07
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.81
Bull Case
$30.26
(-41%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$27.50
(-46%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$37.41
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.2 to 37.0
Stabilization Target:
$66.72
(+31.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
