FTAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$198.42
-11.28 (-5.38%)
▼
5d:
-12.76%
30d:
-8.13%
90d:
-21.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 14, 2026 at $217.13 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FTAI is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FTAI is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$584.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$363.15
45.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $198.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $204.66 to $222.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.5) compared to its historical average (25.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.00 (+83.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.00 (+83.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$204.66 -
$222.25
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FTAI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 83.4% below Wall St target ($364.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$204.66 -
$222.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$194.43
Resistance Level
$234.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.52
Wall Street Target
$364.00
(+83.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.0%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 25.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.58
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$160.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$144.65
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→25)
$220.69
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 111.1%)
$812.92
(+310%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 111.1%)
$669.67
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 111.1%)
$569.22
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$435.18
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.7
Base Case
$395.62
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.1
Bear Case
$134.51
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 25.2
Stabilization Target:
$302.74
(+52.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FTAI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FTAI price and gamma walls.