GEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$86.70
0.15 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
+7.93%
30d:
+15.32%
90d:
+29.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEF trades at premium valuation expecting 7.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: GEF trades at premium valuation expecting 7.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.80
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $86.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.97 to $81.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.5) compared to its historical average (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.97 -
$81.79
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($81.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.97 -
$81.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.40
Resistance Level
$88.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.54
Wall Street Target
$81.40
(-6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 14.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.46
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$100.75
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$108.61
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.1%)
$122.57
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$109.62
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 8.1%)
$87.51
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$183.99
(+112%)
Analyst growth 93.3%, PE expands to 39.3
Base Case
$167.26
(+93%)
Market implied 93.3%, PE stable at 35.8
Bear Case
$58.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 7:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-10
Bala Sathyanarayanan
SELL
2731 shares
2026-02-13
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