GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$29.78
-0.46 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
+2.58%
30d:
+4.05%
90d:
+68.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $29.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.51 to $30.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$27.51 -
$30.35
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 13.3% growth expectation is conservative given 106% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.51 -
$30.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.36
Resistance Level
$27.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.90
Wall Street Target
$32.00
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.3% premium
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 12.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.74
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$38.23
(+28%)
3-Year Target
$43.31
(+45%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$91.80
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 36.3%)
$75.47
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 36.3%)
$51.85
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.97
Bull Case
$28.30
(-5%)
Analyst growth -15.6%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$25.73
(-14%)
Market implied -15.6%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$20.72
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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