GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$29.76
0.08 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
+4.26%
30d:
+28.75%
90d:
+75.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEO trades at premium valuation expecting 15.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: GEO trades at premium valuation expecting 15.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $29.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.84 to $28.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.84 -
$28.27
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
GEO is technically overbought (RSI 86). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 15.1% growth expectation is conservative given 106% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.84 -
$28.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.36
Resistance Level
$27.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.84
Wall Street Target
$29.50
(-0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.1% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 11.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.15
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$39.31
(+33%)
3-Year Target
$45.24
(+53%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$91.80
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$75.19
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 36.3%)
$49.32
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.97
Bull Case
$27.19
(-8%)
Analyst growth -15.6%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$24.72
(-17%)
Market implied -15.6%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$19.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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