GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS
The GEO Group (GEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$32.22
-0.50 (-1.53%)
▼
5d:
+28.01%
30d:
+4.58%
90d:
+3.2%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect GEO Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$27.31 – $31.25
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.0x
FAIR
vs 14.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$40.94
+27.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$24.67 / $33.31
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $28.14 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.81
19.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $32.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.31 to $31.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.67, while resistance sits at $33.31.
Market Sentiment: GEO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.94 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.67, while resistance sits at $33.31.
Market Sentiment: GEO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.94 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.31 -
$31.25
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$27.31 -
$31.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$24.67
Resistance Level
$33.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding GEO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($40.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.99
Wall Street Target
$40.94
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.2%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.99
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$31.77
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$31.55
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$32.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 60.6%)
$154.33
(+379%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 60.6%)
$108.74
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 60.6%)
$92.43
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$65.77
(+104%)
Analyst growth 82.7%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$59.79
(+86%)
Market implied 82.7%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$22.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$32.93
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GEO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest article from Yahoo Finance suggests that Geo Group (GEO) is an attractive investment due to rising earnings estimate revisions from analysts, while a bullish StockTwits message highlights the Trump Administration's record-breaking deportations. The positive sentiment reflects growing optimism on both the company's earnings prospects and its potential business impact from immigration policies.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings estimate revisions
Immigration policy
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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