The GEO Group (GEO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$31.36
0.57 (1.85%)
â˛
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
+2.62%
90d:
+5.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GEO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 9.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GEO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 9.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $31.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.59 to $32.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.75 (+20.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEO scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.75 (+20.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.59 -
$32.10
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GEO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($37.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.59 -
$32.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.19
Resistance Level
$32.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.34
Wall Street Target
$37.75
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.5% premium
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 14.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.34
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$37.60
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$41.17
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 30.8%)
$78.04
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 30.8%)
$70.15
(+124%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 30.8%)
$53.55
(+71%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$27.06
(-14%)
Analyst growth -20.1%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$24.60
(-22%)
Market implied -20.1%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$20.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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