Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GEO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $31.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.73 to $32.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.04, while resistance sits at $32.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.75 (+19.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.73 -
$32.13
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
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The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services.
