GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$32.71
0.99 (3.12%)
▲
5d:
+4.77%
30d:
+5.28%
90d:
+41.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GEO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $32.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.13 to $31.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.75 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.75 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.13 -
$31.52
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GEO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 13.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.13 -
$31.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.01
Resistance Level
$32.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.13
Wall Street Target
$37.75
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.0% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 13.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.96
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$41.77
(+28%)
3-Year Target
$47.20
(+44%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 30.8%)
$76.77
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 30.8%)
$73.17
(+124%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 30.8%)
$50.88
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12
Bull Case
$28.14
(-14%)
Analyst growth -19.3%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$25.59
(-22%)
Market implied -19.3%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$21.57
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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