GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$31.34
0.45 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
+3.6%
90d:
+67.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $31.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.49 to $30.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.49 -
$30.73
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.75)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 13.7% growth expectation is conservative given 106% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.49 -
$30.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.83
Resistance Level
$32.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.84
Wall Street Target
$33.75
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.5%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 12.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.63
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$40.52
(+29%)
3-Year Target
$46.07
(+47%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 36.3%)
$87.38
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$79.42
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 36.3%)
$53.95
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.97
Bull Case
$28.69
(-9%)
Analyst growth -15.6%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$26.08
(-17%)
Market implied -15.6%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$21.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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