GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$11.35
0.62 (5.78%)
▲
5d:
+1.79%
30d:
+4.61%
90d:
+17.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.76
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $11.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.43 to $11.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.50, while resistance sits at $11.82. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.50, while resistance sits at $11.82. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.43 -
$11.16
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.1% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.43 -
$11.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.50
Resistance Level
$11.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.80
Wall Street Target
$11.80
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 8.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.93
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$12.54
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$13.18
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.29
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 41.2%)
$67.53
(+495%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 41.2%)
$31.92
(+181%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 41.2%)
$27.13
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$14.86
(+31%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$13.51
(+19%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$7.30
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 7:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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