HLIT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLIT - Harmonic Inc
$12.47
0.10 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-10.42%
30d:
+7.5%
90d:
-1.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HLIT is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HLIT is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.51
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLIT is currently trading at $12.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.35 to $12.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.38, while resistance sits at $15.06.
Market Sentiment: HLIT scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.14 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.38, while resistance sits at $15.06.
Market Sentiment: HLIT scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.14 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.98
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLIT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($16.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.35 -
$12.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.38
Resistance Level
$15.06
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.44
Wall Street Target
$16.14
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Profit Margin
-10.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$11.73
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$11.38
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$12.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 62.6%)
$54.71
(+339%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 62.6%)
$42.09
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 62.6%)
$35.77
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 18.83 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.66
Bull Case
$15.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$12.47
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$9.54
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.65
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLIT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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