Harmonic (HLIT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLIT - Harmonic Inc
$11.17
0.45 (4.20%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
-5.26%
90d:
-19.93%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLIT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLIT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.21
31.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLIT is currently trading at $11.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.93 to $12.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLIT scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.14 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLIT scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.14 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.93 -
$12.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLIT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($16.14)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.93 -
$12.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.43
Resistance Level
$11.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.83
Wall Street Target
$16.14
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Profit Margin
-10.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.52
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$9.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$9.34
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$11.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 62.6%)
$55.61
(+398%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 62.6%)
$37.70
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 62.6%)
$32.04
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.23
Bull Case
$23.58
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$21.44
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.6
Bear Case
$7.29
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$13.41
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLIT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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