HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$16.25
-0.54 (-3.22%)
▼
5d:
-10.47%
30d:
-13.93%
90d:
+2.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.11
46.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $16.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.55 to $18.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.66, while resistance sits at $20.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+86.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.66, while resistance sits at $20.06. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+86.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.55 -
$18.94
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 86.7% below Wall St target ($30.33)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.55 -
$18.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.66
Resistance Level
$20.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.68
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+86.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 22.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→23)
$18.15
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 472.5%)
$81.35
(+401%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 472.5%)
$54.84
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 472.5%)
$46.62
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$36.94
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case
$33.58
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$11.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$24.90
(+53.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 12:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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