HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$15.81
-0.38 (-2.35%)
▼
5d:
-12.84%
30d:
-18.17%
90d:
-16.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HNRG is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HNRG is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.18
49.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $15.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.10 to $19.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+91.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.33 (+91.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.10 -
$19.44
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 91.9% below Wall St target ($30.33)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.10 -
$19.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.66
Resistance Level
$20.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.29
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+91.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 23.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.81
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.53
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→23)
$18.80
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 472.5%)
$81.87
(+418%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 472.5%)
$53.36
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 472.5%)
$45.35
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$35.62
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$32.38
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$11.01
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$25.79
(+63.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 10, 2026 11:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles Ray Iv Wesley
BUY
20000 shares
2025-12-17
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