Hallador Energy (HNRG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$13.52
-0.35 (-2.52%)
▼
5d:
-7.02%
30d:
-17.41%
90d:
-16.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HNRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HNRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.51
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $13.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.43 to $16.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HNRG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+109.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HNRG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+109.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.43 -
$16.37
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 109.6% below Wall St target ($28.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.43 -
$16.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.19
Resistance Level
$15.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.59
Wall Street Target
$28.33
(+109.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.40
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.28
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$13.16
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$13.55
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.06 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.79
Bull Case
$16.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$13.52
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$10.34
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$13.92
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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