HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$15.38
-0.15 (-0.97%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.83%
30d:
-4.17%
90d:
-13.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HNRG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HNRG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.16
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $15.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.77 to $16.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.68, while resistance sits at $16.47.
Market Sentiment: HNRG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+84.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.68, while resistance sits at $16.47.
Market Sentiment: HNRG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.33 (+84.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.77 -
$16.31
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.2% below Wall St target ($28.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.77 -
$16.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.68
Resistance Level
$16.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.63
Wall Street Target
$28.33
(+84.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.03
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.68
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$14.34
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â21)
$15.41
(+0%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (61x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 60.61 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.25
Bull Case
$18.57
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 63.6
Base Case
$15.38
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 60.6
Bear Case
$11.77
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 54.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.53
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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