Hallador Energy (HNRG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$11.45
0.11 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
-7.81%
30d:
-24.02%
90d:
-28.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HNRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HNRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.98
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $11.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.15 to $15.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 52.8) compared to its historical average (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 32.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.00 (+144.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.00 (+144.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.15 -
$15.12
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 144.5% below Wall St target ($28.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 32.0% growth expectation is conservative given 1408% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.15 -
$15.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.15
Resistance Level
$15.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.84
Wall Street Target
$28.00
(+144.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+32.0% premium
PE vs Historical
52.8 vs 23.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+32.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.11
(+32%)
2-Year Target
$19.95
(+74%)
3-Year Target
$26.33
(+130%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 53→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.06 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.67
Bull Case
$13.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$11.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$8.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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