TAC TransAlta Corporation Electric Services Best Electric Utilities Stocks 2026 →

TransAlta (TAC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$13.39
+0.03 (+0.22%) ▲
5d: +0.37% 30d: +1.29% 90d: +6.19%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$12.64 – $13.30
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.3x CHEAP
vs 29.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$13.11
-1.9% vs target
Options IV & Volume
31th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.62 / $14.07
Trend: Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TAC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.92
29.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $13.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.64 to $13.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (29.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.62, while resistance sits at $14.07.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $12.64 - $13.30
Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)
Options IV Signal 31th percentile (NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 50.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $12.64 - $13.30
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days) ±$0.82 (6.2%)
Support Level $12.62
Resistance Level $14.07
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.11)
  • WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.34
Wall Street Target $13.11 (-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -71.6%
Profit Margin 4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical 21.3 vs 29.4 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -10.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $12.02 (-10%)
2-Year Target $10.82 (-19%)
3-Year Target $9.74 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→29) $13.42 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.3, Growth: 58.5%) $45.09 (+238%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 58.5%) $41.96 (+214%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 58.5%) $35.67 (+167%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.40
Bull Case $16.13 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case $13.36 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case $10.22 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 29.4
Stabilization Target: $18.40 (+37.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +37.8%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TAC)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: A bullish trader on StockTwits highlights $TAC as a Canadian-listed stock at an area of support on its 3-year weekly chart, with strong growth metrics and a dividend payout.
Key Retail Themes: Bullish sentiment towards $TAC Technical analysis of $TAC's chart
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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