TransAlta (TAC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAC - TransAlta Corporation
$12.22
0.14 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+3.82%
30d:
+3.82%
90d:
-9.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.89
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $12.22, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.78 to $12.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (30.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAC scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAC scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.78 -
$12.37
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.99)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.78 -
$12.37
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.42
Resistance Level
$12.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.65
Wall Street Target
$12.99
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.6%
Profit Margin
-1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 30.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.90
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.91
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→31)
$13.16
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 76.6%)
$41.24
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 76.6%)
$40.74
(+233%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 76.6%)
$34.63
(+183%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 30.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.05
(+47.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAC price and gamma walls.
