TransAlta (TAC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAC - TransAlta Corporation
$12.08
-0.10 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
-2.58%
90d:
-9.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.84
28.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $12.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.06 to $12.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (31.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.65, while resistance sits at $12.55.
Market Sentiment: TAC scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.37 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.65, while resistance sits at $12.55.
Market Sentiment: TAC scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.37 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.06 -
$12.61
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.37)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.06 -
$12.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.66
Resistance Level
$12.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.68
Wall Street Target
$13.37
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.6%
Profit Margin
-1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 31.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.87
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.81
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→31)
$12.71
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.7, Growth: 79.7%)
$40.77
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 79.7%)
$37.92
(+214%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 79.7%)
$32.24
(+167%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 31.3
Stabilization Target:
$17.44
(+44.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced TAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAC price and gamma walls.
