What is the fair value of TAC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TAC to be between $11.89 and $12.96. The current price is $12.55.

What is the analyst price target for TAC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TAC is $13.16. This implies a potential upside of -1.4% from current levels.

TransAlta (TAC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TAC - TransAlta Corporation

Electric Services

$12.55

-0.79 (-5.92%) ▼

5d: -0.87%

30d: +5.02%

90d: -8.53%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TAC Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 11d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $13.05 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TAC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$28.81

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$17.89

29.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $12.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.89 to $12.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (29.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $11.89 - $12.96

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 62.9%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.9%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.16)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $11.89 - $12.96

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $12.32

Resistance Level $13.58

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.55

Wall Street Target $13.16 (-1.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -71.6%

Profit Margin -1.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -9.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 22.6 vs 29.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -9.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $12.14 (-9%)

2-Year Target $11.05 (-17%)

3-Year Target $10.05 (-25%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→30) $13.33 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.5, Growth: 80.4%) $45.02 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 80.4%) $39.66 (+197%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 80.4%) $33.71 (+153%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.5 to 29.9

Stabilization Target: $17.69 (+32.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +32.6%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM

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Advanced TAC Option Strategies

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