HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$276.06
0.93 (0.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
+7.6%
90d:
+15.26%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$259.64
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$161.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $276.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $251.11 to $272.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 45.9) is in line with its historical norms (45.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.34, while resistance sits at $290.63.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $305.13 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.34, while resistance sits at $290.63.
Market Sentiment: HWM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $305.13 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$251.11 -
$272.33
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($305.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$251.11 -
$272.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$248.34
Resistance Level
$290.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.85
Wall Street Target
$305.13
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
45.9 vs 45.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$276.89
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$277.72
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$278.55
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$275.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$469.12
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$222.86
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$189.43
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 64.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$429.85
(+56%)
Analyst growth 39.4%, PE expands to 71.4
Base Case
$390.77
(+42%)
Market implied 39.4%, PE stable at 64.9
Bear Case
$190.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 55.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Barbara Lou Shultz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-26
Neil Edward Marchuk
SELL
45150 shares
2026-02-18
Byron Donalds
SELL
2026-01-08
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