ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$282.29
-0.45 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
-2.93%
30d:
+1.94%
90d:
+12.95%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ITW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ITW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$372.32
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $282.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $278.06 to $293.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $281.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$278.06 -
$293.84
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($301.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$278.06 -
$293.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.43
(3.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$281.04
Resistance Level
$297.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.78
Wall Street Target
$301.86
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$284.27
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$286.26
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$288.26
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$282.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$358.20
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$315.65
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$268.30
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.03
Bull Case
$349.49
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.4%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$317.72
(+13%)
Market implied 12.4%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$192.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
