JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$22.15
0.56 (2.59%)
▲
5d:
-0.89%
30d:
+4.04%
90d:
+11.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JAKK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JAKK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.31
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $22.15, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.52 to $22.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.33, while resistance sits at $23.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.33, while resistance sits at $23.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$21.52 -
$22.35
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with -5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.52 -
$22.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.33
Resistance Level
$23.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.77
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.55
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$22.95
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$23.37
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 47.6%)
$229.15
(+935%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 47.6%)
$71.27
(+222%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 47.6%)
$60.58
(+174%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$47.50
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$43.18
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$14.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 9:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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