JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$25.51
0.03 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
+0.16%
30d:
+4.12%
90d:
+15.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JAKK trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: JAKK trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.45
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $25.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.66 to $26.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.66 -
$26.12
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.5% growth with 16.9% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.66 -
$26.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.51
Resistance Level
$26.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.81
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 6.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.91
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$28.39
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$29.95
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.69
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 64.1%)
$220.94
(+766%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 64.1%)
$86.10
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 64.1%)
$73.18
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$56.06
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$50.96
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$17.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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