JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$21.57
-0.21 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-5.85%
30d:
-6.34%
90d:
+3.6%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JAKK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: JAKK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.31
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $21.57, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.53 to $22.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.53 -
$22.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with -5.8% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.53 -
$22.93
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.01
Resistance Level
$23.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.60
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.79
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.00
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$22.22
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 47.6%)
$230.52
(+969%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 47.6%)
$69.40
(+222%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 47.6%)
$58.99
(+174%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$50.40
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.0
Base Case
$45.82
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$15.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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