Jakks Pacific (JAKK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$24.17
0.38 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+0.5%
30d:
-3.93%
90d:
+8.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JAKK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JAKK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.45
8.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $24.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.51 to $25.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+17.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+17.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.51 -
$25.77
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with 16.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.51 -
$25.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.48
Resistance Level
$25.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.40
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.97
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$25.79
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$26.64
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 64.1%)
$222.26
(+820%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 64.1%)
$81.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 64.1%)
$69.34
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$52.34
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$47.58
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$16.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 11:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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