JAKK
Jakks Pacific Inc
GAMES, TOYS & CHILDREN'S VEHICLES (NO DOLLS & BICYCLES)
Jakks Pacific (JAKK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$36.39
+0.83 (+2.33%)
▲
5d:
+14.98%
30d:
+31.18%
90d:
+44.63%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (18%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$27.94 – $33.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.6x
STRETCHED
vs 7.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$48.50
+33.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$31.10 / $36.42
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: JAKK is 10.1% above its trading range ($33.05). Market expects 11.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $36.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.94 to $33.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.94 -
$33.05
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
18.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$27.94 -
$33.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$31.10
Resistance Level
$36.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($48.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.64
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 7.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.47
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$45.00
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$50.04
(+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 58.9%)
$253.03
(+595%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 58.9%)
$122.82
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 58.9%)
$89.18
(+145%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.19
Bull Case
$67.43
(+85%)
Analyst growth 72.4%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$61.30
(+68%)
Market implied 72.4%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$24.18
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (JAKK)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 26, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits has identified a cup and handle pattern in $JAKK stock, predicting a potential upside target at 63 US$. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
Technical Analysis
Price Target
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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