JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$144.56
1.75 (1.23%)
▲
5d:
+1.29%
30d:
+3.73%
90d:
+1.42%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.27
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.09
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $144.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.02 to $146.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.8) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $148.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $148.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$140.02 -
$146.33
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($155.26)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$140.02 -
$146.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.32
Resistance Level
$148.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.82
Wall Street Target
$155.26
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.9%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 24.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.24
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$143.67
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$144.10
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$142.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$232.25
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$203.82
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$173.25
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.27
Bull Case
$272.02
(+91%)
Analyst growth 76.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$247.29
(+73%)
Market implied 76.0%, PE stable at 43.0
Bear Case
$95.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Daniel C Mcconeghy
SELL
3600 shares
2026-02-23
Todd M Grabowski
SELL
6050 shares
2026-02-06
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