KBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KBDC - Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.
$13.67
0.37 (2.78%)
▲
5d:
+0.44%
30d:
+0.59%
90d:
-9.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.03
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KBDC is currently trading at $13.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.47 to $13.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBDC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.20 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBDC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.20 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.47 -
$13.79
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.47 -
$13.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.22
Resistance Level
$13.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.34
Wall Street Target
$15.20
(+14.3%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.94
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$12.59
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$12.25
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$13.22
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -2.1%)
$30.99
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$12.47
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$10.60
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.28
Bull Case
$18.45
(+39%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$16.78
(+26%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$9.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$14.35
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is KBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
George E Marucci Jr
BUY
9000 shares
2026-03-06
George E Marucci Jr
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-04
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