KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$50.98
-0.84 (-1.62%)
▼
5d:
-3.63%
30d:
+16.05%
90d:
+26.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.72
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $50.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.25 to $52.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$45.25 -
$52.70
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.1% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.25 -
$52.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.08
Resistance Level
$49.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.36
Wall Street Target
$51.31
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 16.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.11
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$59.57
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$64.40
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -6.5%)
$44.59
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -6.5%)
$41.68
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: -6.5%)
$32.96
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$88.65
(+74%)
Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$80.59
(+58%)
Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$35.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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