Is KMX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, KMX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of KMX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for KMX to be between $56.83 and $59.70. The current price is $62.13.

What is the analyst price target for KMX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for KMX is $54.85. This implies a potential upside of -11.7% from current levels.

KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KMX - CarMax Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$62.13

1.08 (1.77%) ▲

5d: +3.69%

30d: +6.41%

90d: +59.64%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 24, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $58.18 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -6.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$40.07

Based on -1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$24.88

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $62.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.83 to $59.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.8) compared to its historical average (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.2% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: KMX scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $54.85. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $56.83 - $59.70

Company Quality Score 32/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 22.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading 11.7% above Wall St target ($54.85)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 13.2% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $56.83 - $59.70

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $57.25

Resistance Level $63.00

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.81

Wall Street Target $54.85 (-11.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -5.2%

Profit Margin 0.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +13.2% premium

PE vs Historical 24.8 vs 17.1 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +13.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $70.33 (+13%)

2-Year Target $79.61 (+28%)

3-Year Target $90.12 (+45%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→17) PE COMPRESSION $62.11 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.8, Growth: -6.5%) $50.80 (+-18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -6.5%) $41.09 (-34%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: -6.5%) $34.92 (-44%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 37.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61

Bull Case $104.44 (+68%)

Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 41.7

Base Case $94.95 (+53%)

Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 37.9

Bear Case $41.51 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 4:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:23 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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