KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$57.26
-1.44 (-2.45%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
+10.5%
90d:
+45.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 24, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.13
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $57.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.71 to $58.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$51.71 -
$58.01
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($54.85)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.1% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.71 -
$58.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.73
Resistance Level
$61.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.87
Wall Street Target
$54.85
(-4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.1% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 16.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.62
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$70.68
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$78.52
(+37%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$57.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$46.81
(+-18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -6.5%)
$42.44
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: -6.5%)
$34.19
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$101.05
(+77%)
Analyst growth 56.5%, PE expands to 40.4
Base Case
$91.87
(+60%)
Market implied 56.5%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$39.92
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMX price and gamma walls.
