LOAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOAR - Loar Holdings Inc.
$71.92
-1.17 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-11.53%
30d:
+10.87%
90d:
+11.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LOAR is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LOAR is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.77
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOAR is currently trading at $71.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.91 to $78.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 45.7) compared to its historical average (57.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOAR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.60 (+20.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOAR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.60 (+20.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$66.91 -
$78.19
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LOAR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($86.60)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.91 -
$78.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.25
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.39
Resistance Level
$82.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.72
Wall Street Target
$86.60
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.6%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
45.7 vs 57.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.53
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$61.54
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$56.92
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→58)
$71.97
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.7, Growth: 20.6%)
$126.00
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.6%)
$60.03
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 20.6%)
$51.02
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 64.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.11
Bull Case
$86.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 67.7
Base Case
$71.92
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 64.5
Bear Case
$55.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 45.7 to 57.8
Stabilization Target:
$90.93
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paul S Levy
BUY
75000 shares
2026-03-13
Anthony Carpenito
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-13
Anthony Carpenito
BUY
4750 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced LOAR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LOAR price and gamma walls.
