MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$13.83
-0.07 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
-3.66%
30d:
-7.65%
90d:
-8.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.76
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.86
22.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $13.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.12 to $14.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.71 (+34.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.71 (+34.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.12 -
$14.98
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.7% below Wall St target ($18.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.12 -
$14.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.95
Resistance Level
$15.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.75
Wall Street Target
$18.71
(+34.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.08
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$12.33
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$11.61
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$13.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$58.68
(+323%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 19.3%)
$23.57
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$20.03
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$15.72
(+13%)
Analyst growth 1.8%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$14.29
(+3%)
Market implied 1.8%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$9.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$16.67
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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