MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$15.09
-0.12 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
+5.23%
30d:
+9.83%
90d:
+0.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.18
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.12
16.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $15.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.42 to $14.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.31 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.31 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.42 -
$14.70
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($18.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.42 -
$14.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.99
Resistance Level
$15.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$18.31
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.68
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$14.29
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$13.90
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$15.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.8%)
$58.64
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 20.8%)
$26.58
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 20.8%)
$22.59
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$17.22
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$15.66
(+4%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$10.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$16.38
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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