MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$14.51
-0.21 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-3.46%
30d:
+1.9%
90d:
-3.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $14.79 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.12
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.08
19.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $14.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.18 to $15.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.23 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.23 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.18 -
$15.03
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($18.23)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 69/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.18 -
$15.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.32
Resistance Level
$15.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$18.23
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.00
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$13.51
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$13.04
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$14.44
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 21.6%)
$57.34
(+295%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.6%)
$26.06
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 21.6%)
$22.15
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$19.22
(+33%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$17.47
(+20%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$10.01
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.07
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAT price and gamma walls.
