Is MAT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MAT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MAT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MAT to be between $13.35 and $16.76. The current price is $16.86.

What is the analyst price target for MAT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MAT is $18.46. This implies a potential upside of 8.9% from current levels.

Mattel (MAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MAT - Mattel, Inc.

DOLLS & STUFFED TOYS

$16.87

-0.09 (-0.50%) ▼

5d: -2.63%

30d: +28.94%

90d: +17.61%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MAT Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 13d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 22, 2026 at $16.91 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 4.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$28.68

Based on 12.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$17.81

5.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $16.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.35 to $16.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.30, while resistance sits at $17.43.

Market Sentiment: MAT scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $13.35 - $16.76

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.46)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with 10.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $13.35 - $16.76

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $16.30

Resistance Level $17.43

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.74

Wall Street Target $18.46 (+8.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -18.5%

Profit Margin 7.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.5% premium

PE vs Historical 10.7 vs 10.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $17.37 (+3%)

2-Year Target $17.81 (+5%)

3-Year Target $18.25 (+8%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $17.00 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%) $56.45 (+233%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 21.7%) $30.51 (+80%)

Bear: (PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.7%) $25.94 (+53%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.36

Bull Case $21.70 (+28%)

Analyst growth 16.1%, PE expands to 13.7

Base Case $19.72 (+16%)

Market implied 16.1%, PE stable at 12.5

Bear Case $11.55 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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