Mattel (MAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$15.30
0.26 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
+15.09%
30d:
+4.47%
90d:
+17.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.38
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.62
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $15.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.18 to $14.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $17.23.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.15 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $17.23.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.15 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.77
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($18.15)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.40
Resistance Level
$17.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.47
Wall Street Target
$18.15
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.80
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.56
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$14.33
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$14.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$57.94
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 21.4%)
$26.89
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 21.4%)
$22.86
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$16.51
(+10%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$15.01
(0%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$8.61
(-43%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$15.73
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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