MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$13.84
0.51 (3.83%)
▲
5d:
+6.05%
30d:
-5.79%
90d:
-5.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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1 traders called MAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.51
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.32
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $13.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.43 to $14.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.38 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.43 -
$14.35
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($18.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.43 -
$14.35
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.95
Resistance Level
$15.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.59
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.04
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$12.28
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$11.57
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$13.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.7%)
$61.78
(+346%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 20.7%)
$24.36
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 20.7%)
$20.71
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$15.15
(+9%)
Analyst growth 3.3%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$13.77
(-1%)
Market implied 3.3%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$9.06
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.60
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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