MAT
Mattel, Inc.
DOLLS & STUFFED TOYS
Mattel (MAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.08
+0.08 (+0.50%)
â˛
5d:
+3.28%
30d:
-4.29%
90d:
+8.06%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect MAT Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (49%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$15.48 â $16.83
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
FAIR
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.08
+12.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.16 / $16.28
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MAT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $15.53 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.23
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $16.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.48 to $16.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.08 (+12.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.08 (+12.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.48 -
$16.83
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.48 -
$16.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$14.16
Resistance Level
$16.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.75
Wall Street Target
$18.08
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.48
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$16.89
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$17.32
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$42.45
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$22.99
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$19.54
(+22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$15.57
(-3%)
Analyst growth -11.5%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$14.16
(-12%)
Market implied -11.5%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$10.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MAT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Mattel introduces new buildable Hot Wheels cars with metal base plates and rolling wheels, priced at $4.99, expanding their Mattel Brick Shop portfolio.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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