Mattel (MAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$13.42
-0.61 (-4.35%)
▼
5d:
-5.09%
30d:
-10.71%
90d:
-6.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 1, 2026 at $14.73 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 6.7/10
Get Alerted When MAT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.11
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.08
25.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $13.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.12 to $15.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.23 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.23 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.12 -
$15.03
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($18.23)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.12 -
$15.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.38
Resistance Level
$14.96
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.44
Wall Street Target
$18.23
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.66
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.93
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$11.25
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$13.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.6%)
$57.72
(+330%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 21.6%)
$24.12
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 21.6%)
$20.51
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$18.32
(+37%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$16.65
(+24%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$9.54
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.06
(+19.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 9:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Leisure Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Leisure by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
PLNT
Planet Fitness Inc |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$68 | 53 HOLD |
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$50 | 63 BUY |
|
YETI
YETI Holdings Inc |
BUY
16 analysts |
$55 | 75 BUY |
|
HAS
Hasbro Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$110 | 53 HOLD |
|
PTON
Peloton Interactive Inc |
HOLD
21 analysts |
$8 | 55 HOLD |
Advanced MAT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAT price and gamma walls.
