Mattel (MAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MAT - Mattel, Inc.

DOLLS & STUFFED TOYS
$14.01
0.20 (1.45%) ▲
5d: -2.03%
30d: -4.37%
90d: -4.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Protect Your MAT Gains
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 1, 2026 at $14.73 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.11
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.08
22.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $14.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.27 to $15.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.52, while resistance sits at $15.24.

Market Sentiment: MAT scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.23 (+30.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $14.27 - $15.02
Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 30.1% below Wall St target ($18.23)
  • WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $14.27 - $15.02
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $13.52
Resistance Level $15.24
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.81
Wall Street Target $18.23 (+30.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -18.5%
Profit Margin 7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 8.8 vs 10.1 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $13.41 (-4%)
2-Year Target $12.83 (-8%)
3-Year Target $12.28 (-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→10) $14.08 (+1%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.6%) $57.66 (+312%)
Base: (SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 21.6%) $25.18 (+80%)
Bear: (PE: 7.5, Growth: 21.6%) $21.41 (+53%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case $18.03 (+29%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case $16.39 (+17%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case $9.39 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 10.1
Stabilization Target: $16.06 (+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +14.7%
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL

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Advanced MAT Option Strategies

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