MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$270.95
1.82 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
-0.69%
30d:
+3.1%
90d:
-4.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $274.48 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$404.47
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$251.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $270.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.89 to $273.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $265.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $316.06 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $265.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $316.06 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$265.89 -
$273.56
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($316.06)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$265.89 -
$273.56
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$265.14
Resistance Level
$278.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.36
Wall Street Target
$316.06
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 21.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$261.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$252.84
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$244.24
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$271.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$355.92
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$343.25
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 8.2%)
$291.76
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.38
Bull Case
$334.74
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$304.31
(+12%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$183.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$300.97
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 2:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCD price and gamma walls.
