MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$279.84
7.12 (2.61%)
▲
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
-1.5%
90d:
-14.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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1 traders called MCD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$437.24
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$271.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $279.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.30 to $286.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $272.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.29 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $272.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.29 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$275.30 -
$286.62
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($331.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$275.30 -
$286.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$272.95
Resistance Level
$285.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.68
Wall Street Target
$331.29
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$268.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$258.44
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$248.36
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$280.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$409.08
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 9.5%)
$367.44
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 9.5%)
$312.32
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.14
Bull Case
$351.38
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$319.44
(+14%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$185.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$315.68
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 06, 2026 6:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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