MKC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS
$50.90
-0.06 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
+1.88%
30d:
-3.8%
90d:
+0.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MKC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MKC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.65
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKC is currently trading at $50.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.32 to $52.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.62 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.62 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$49.32 -
$52.98
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($60.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.32 -
$52.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.69
Resistance Level
$53.26
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.14
Wall Street Target
$60.62
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.2%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 17.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.71
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$45.56
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$43.51
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$50.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$83.67
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$60.89
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$51.75
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.80
Bull Case
$31.40
(-38%)
Analyst growth -43.1%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$28.55
(-44%)
Market implied -43.1%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$34.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$57.40
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gavin Hattersley
BUY
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Lawrence Erik Kurzius
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
Michael D Mangan
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-09
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