MMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMS - MAXIMUS, Inc.
$55.92
1.88 (3.48%)
▲
5d:
-8.6%
30d:
-8.91%
90d:
-18.39%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.12
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.03
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMS is currently trading at $55.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.23 to $62.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.00 (+94.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.00 (+94.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.23 -
$62.38
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
43th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MMS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 43th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 94.3% below Wall St target ($105.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.23 -
$62.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.56
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.26
Resistance Level
$63.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.96
Wall Street Target
$105.00
(+94.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$43.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$39.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$56.86
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$245.60
(+355%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 7.5%)
$67.19
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$57.11
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.66
Bull Case
$83.50
(+55%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$75.91
(+41%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$37.90
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$78.00
(+44.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jan Madsen
SELL
742 shares
2026-03-17
Bruce Caswell
BUY
3175 shares
2026-02-10
David Mutryn
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-09
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MMS price and gamma walls.
